Prediction Markets in Germany [2026]

Germany has one of the more restrictive online gambling regulatory frameworks in Europe under the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (State Treaty on Gambling). The framework licenses online sports betting and online casino products under specific operator and product criteria but maintains strict rules around what online gambling activities can be offered legally to German users. Prediction markets sit in a less clearly defined category that has not yet been the subject of major German regulatory cases.

International decentralised prediction platforms like Polymarket continue to operate accessibly for German users in 2026 despite the broader Glücksspielstaatsvertrag framework that restricts other forms of offshore gambling. The decentralised nature of these platforms makes them difficult to restrict at the network level, and they have not been the focus of explicit German regulatory enforcement.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US prediction market that does not formally accept German users. Kalshi's signup and KYC processes are designed for US residents. German users cannot reliably access Kalshi from Germany. This is a regulatory and operational restriction rather than a technical geo-block in the strict sense, but the practical effect is that German users do not have access to Kalshi.

For broader European context see our main European prediction markets guide.

The Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) is the German State Treaty on Gambling administered by the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL). The framework was overhauled in 2021 to permit licensed online sports betting and online casino products under specific operator licensing.

The GGL licenses sports betting operators (Tipico, Bet365 Germany, others) and online casino operators under strict consumer protection rules including deposit limits, time tracking, self-exclusion, and connections to the OASIS national self-exclusion register. Licensed German sports betting operators offer event-style markets on football (especially Bundesliga, Champions League, and major international competitions), tennis, motorsport, and other sports.

The framework does not yet have specific rules for prediction markets and event contracts as a distinct category. International decentralised prediction platforms like Polymarket continue to operate accessibly in practice. German users who participate in international prediction markets should consult tax professionals about specific reporting obligations on prediction market activity.

Tax treatment of gambling and prediction market winnings in Germany varies depending on whether activity is classified as professional or hobby trading. German tax authorities have historically taken a more restrictive view of professional gambling activity than some other European jurisdictions. Casual users with small prediction market activity typically face simpler tax treatment than professional traders.

German users have access to international decentralised prediction platforms despite the country's restrictive online gambling framework.

Polymarket is the leading option for German prediction users. The platform's deep liquidity on European political markets (including German federal election outright winner contracts when applicable) makes it particularly relevant for German users interested in political event contracts. Trading requires USDC on the Polygon blockchain via a Web3 wallet.

Coinbase Predictions and Crypto.com Predictions operate in Germany under the parent exchanges' German regulatory positions. Both have meaningful German market presence given strong German crypto adoption rates. Coverage focuses on crypto-native event markets but includes some general events.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US platform that does not formally accept German users. German users cannot reliably access Kalshi from Germany.

Licensed German sports betting operators (Tipico, Bet365 Germany, others) offer event-style sports markets under GlüStV licensing. These are traditional sportsbook products with embedded margin rather than peer-to-peer prediction markets, but they fill the sports prediction role for German users.

For most German prediction market users, Polymarket is the right primary platform. The combination of deep liquidity, broad market range (politics, economics, sports outright winners, world events), and accessible international structure makes Polymarket the practical default for German prediction users wanting peer-to-peer prediction markets at international liquidity.

German users wanting to avoid crypto wallet management should look at Coinbase Predictions or Crypto.com Predictions inside the parent exchange apps. Both work for crypto-native German users but coverage is narrower than Polymarket.

For German football betting specifically (Bundesliga, Champions League, international competitions), licensed German sports betting operators (Tipico, Bet365 Germany) offer the deepest market coverage in euros under German regulatory protection. These are traditional sportsbook products rather than peer-to-peer prediction markets.

German federal election prediction markets attract significant Polymarket activity during election cycles. For users wanting to express specific German political event views with capped downside, Polymarket is the leading international option.